Z E M C H 2 0 1 2 I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e
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pertinent our growing aging populations) translate into building designs and the ways in
which we run and live our lives? Do we yet have enough evidence on which to decide?
New approaches are being tried. In 2010 Hawasly et al. published the results of an
agent-based, complex, modelling study evaluating whether social networks save energy
and exploring ways of optimising energy consumption in an eco-village via agent-based
simulation. They posited that in light of the growing need to build resilience into our
societies because of the increasing rate of social, economic and environmental change
occurring that their new agent based complex model was capable of successfully
informing choices on technological solutions. In it they took into account the impacts of
attitudes, values and behaviours to optimize the energy and environmental benefits of
decisions and minimize their costs. It enabled them to ensure that the best choice was
made within a wide range of available adaptive opportunities derived from an extremely
complex range of iterations produced from relationships between interacting forces.
Observer
WindTurbineSimulator
WindSimulator
PVSimulator
House
Timer
controls
controls
controls
controls
HouseSchedule
l
depends
controls
depends
depends
controls
SunSimulator
controls
depends
depends
TemperatureSimulator
controls
depends
Figure 2. Roles in the Hawasly and Corne Agent Based REALL model of the interaction
between renewable energy systems, the building and its occupants with their
interactions and dependencies (Hawasly et al., 2010).
Models such as Hawasly and Cornes’ may also answer a wide range of questions like:
•
What level are such solutions best fostered at?
•
Judging by the simulation outputs, would ensuing local community based
changes be best led by governments, dedicated to stimulating economic growth?
•
Will local communities find it easier to agree to lower standards of living for their
own futures if they can clearly see the clear, equitable, benefits using such
models?
•
Can such models be used to avoid ‘collapse’ events being the only effective
driving force for markets?
•
Is it inevitable that the only sustainable future is a simpler one that will work
adequately in the approaching eras of scarcity, of growing climate impacts and
increasingly unaffordable capitalism?
